South Bay and Palos Verdes Quarterly Market Report

The mortgage meltdown and huge volatility in the stock markets has obviously had a significant impact on the sale of homes. The average price per sq. ft. for homes sold in the fourth quarter 2008 compared to fourth quarter 2007, has fallen much less in the South Bay beach cities, however, than in most markets in Southern California.

Properties, on average, in the South Bay are selling for approx. 96% of list price. For detailed Market Reports by submarket / neighborhood, visit my website at https://maureenmegowan.com

For most of the last two decades, Los Angeles County has averaged an 8 month inventory, therefore for most of the South Bay; the number of months of inventory is not unusually high. The inventory of homes in Redondo Beach, Torrance and San Pedro has shrunk significantly in the last quarter, which has led to the low number for months of inventory on hand in those cities. In fact, sales volumes in Torrance and San Pedro have increased significantly compared to the prior year. This is indicative of the fact that the lower priced homes in markets tend to be selling faster. This is also true in the higher priced market of the Palos Verdes Peninsula.

Communities where homes were primarily financed with no down payment variable rate loans, have seen the most loan defaults and resulting price declines, such as San Bernardino, where median home prices are down 40% compared to a year ago.

BUYERS AND SELLERS TAKE HEART! There is financing available for well qualified buyers due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive action in purchasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities. Many buyers may have been severely affected by the drop in the stock market which may impact the amount of money they may have available for a down payment. For some, 3% down payment loans are available, but with tight restrictions. The recent passage of the Financing “Bail-out” bill will help provide additional capital in the market for new mortgage loans, but this will take time to implement. Interest rates have also fallen significantly.

BUYERS with good credit, an adequate down payment and 2 years or more employment history will qualify for Full Documentation loans. There are new guidelines for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans. More programs will become available. If the property will be your home, not a speculative investment, you should be buying for the long term. Today’s market gives buyers and sellers the opportunity to negotiate a reasonable deal for both parties.

WHAT ARE MORE IMPORTANT – LOWER PRICES OR LOWER INTEREST RATES? Hypothetically, if a home’s price fell an additional 10% from $500,000 to $450,000, but interest rates went up 1% point, your mortgage payment would be the same. Any advantage gained by waiting for prices to fall can easily be offset by a rise in interest rates. Inflationary pressures continue to increase, due to increases in gas and food prices. With increased inflation, come higher long term interest rates.

How can you get prepared to buy or sell in this market?

Hire a Realtor with strong internet presence both locally and across the country. Don’t miss this very important sales tool. Most buyers begin their search on the internet today.

Maximize your homes best attributes for an optimal selling price and fewer days on the market. Use my website which is filled with ideas to get your home ready, or it can be professionally staged. Email or call me with questions. If you are thinking of selling your home, now may be the best time in the foreseeable future to list your property for sale, while interest rates are low. Qualified buyers are definitely out there and activity has picked up substantially since mid September. In 2009, with a new administration, new tax reform measures may be passed, the market may continue to cool and interest rates may rise.

FINANCING:

Interest rates on jumbo 30 year fixed rate mortgages (loans in excess of $625.500) have decreased substantially over the last quarter to an average rate (as of 1/9/09/) of approx. 6.8% from 8.5%, but still are significantly higher than 30 year fixed rate conforming loans (loans of less than $417,000) which are at approx. 5.0% (which rate decreased about 1% over the last quarter), with some rates approaching 4.5%. Conforming loans generally require a 10% down payment (less for FHA loans)

This large spread between jumbo loans and conforming loans is amazing considering that prior to the mortgage loan melt down, spreads between conforming and jumbo loans were only approx. .2%.

Jumbo Loans – Because of this high interest rate for 30 year jumbo loans, most jumbo loans are being done for fixed rates of only 5 to 7 years, in the range of 6% (with 1 point), with a 25% to 30% down payment.

The Federal Reserve Bank has recently significantly cut short-term rates, however long-term rates have remained stubbornly high due to inflationary expectations.