Interest Rates Dip Again This Week

Interest rates for buying a home on the Palos Verdes Peninsula dipped slightly again this week.The following are excerpts from the newsletter on interest rates published by HSH Associates :

“Last Friday’s soft employment report set the tone for mortgage rates this week, helping them to settle back, and as there was a more or less mixed bag of fresh economic data out this week there was nothing to revert the decline.

There is little doubt that the economy of late has beer more reliably stronger than earlier in the recovery, but it may be that there has been more than a little over-enthusiasm about how much momentum it actually has. Higher interest rates and still-restrictive fiscal policy are a considerable drag to overcome, and it’s not clear if we have the kind of so-called “escape velocity” growth that will allow for us to hit a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle for the economy. Instead, rather than some kind of a geyser shot, we may actually have more of a weak-water-fountain burble.

Doubts about the trajectory of growth, like the ones injected into the market last week are actually good news for mortgage shoppers, as these fears tend to bring lower rates.

It may very well be that the Fed will adhere to a more or less steady path of removing accommodation, since it may in actuality be doing very little to spur growth or lower mortgage or other interest rates by very much. At least so far, evidence suggests that markets aren’t shocked, spooked or surprised by the start of the taper and there has been little effect on housing markets as a result of the actual change in policy (rates rose on fears of a change almost nine months ago and have largely remained there)

We’ll find out more of the path for monetary policy when the Fed again meets in a couple of weeks’ time. Next week, though, we have a market holiday on Monday and a pretty light calendar of new data available. At the moment, odds don’t favor much of a move for mortgage rates as we wend our way though the week, and we might see a move of a basis point or two by the time we get to the end of it.”